Nicola’s Blog

Skills for Care’s Size and Structure Report: Key Insights for the Sector

This week, Skills for Care released its latest Size and Structure of the Adult Social Care Sector and Workforce in England report, providing a comprehensive overview of workforce trends for 2024–25. The report offers vital insights into the state of the sector, highlighting both encouraging progress and areas of growing concern.  For Surrey social care providers it gives some valuable market intelligence and the chance to take stock and use this data to plan for the future.  Whilst it comes an upturn in some trends, this comes with a dose of caution – the market is still fragile and decisions that took place that impacted our sector in 2024 will still have a detrimental effect on services.

Here are the key takeaways:

📈 Workforce Growth has Increased

The adult social care workforce in England reached 1.71 million jobs, a 2.2% increase from the previous year. This figure includes both filled and vacant roles, reflecting the ongoing demand for social care services.

👥 More Roles Being Filled

Encouragingly, the number of filled posts rose by 52,000, up 3.4% to a total of 1.60 million. This marks one of the largest annual increases in recent times.

📉 Vacancy Rates Drop to Pre‑Pandemic Levels

The vacancy rate across the sector has fallen to 7%, equating to 111,000 vacant posts—the lowest since before the COVID-19 pandemic. This is a welcome improvement from the 8.3% vacancy rate reported in the previous year and the peak of 10.5% in 2022, but it remains to be seen if this drop is sustainable.

🔄 Slight Improvement in Staff Turnover

In the independent sector, staff turnover has decreased slightly, down from 25.8% to 24.7%. While this is a modest shift, and is still higher than many other sectors it may signal early signs of improved retention.

🌍 Overseas Recruitment Drops

A sharp drop in international recruitment is one of the most striking findings. New overseas starters fell from 105,000 to just 50,000 in a single year. At the same time, domestic recruitment has also declined, with 30,000 fewer posts held by British nationals—a 7% decrease since 2020/21.  This is unsurprising given the recent changes to international recruitment rules for our sector.

🔗 Sector Still Heavily Dependent on Overseas Workers

Despite the drop in new arrivals, the total number of non‑EU staff in the sector rose from 295,000 to 375,000, continuing a trend that began in 2022. This reiterates the sector’s growing reliance on an overseas workforce for effective service delivery to a growing number of people who require social care support.

🧓 Long-Term Challenges Ahead

To meet the needs of an ageing population, the sector will need an estimated 470,000 additional care roles by 2040—a 27% increase. Addressing this projected shortfall will require strategic planning, investment, and robust workforce policies.  With international recruitment not a viable option for many, encouraging young people and returners to the domestic workforce becomes all the more important.

🗣 Calls for Policy Action

Sector bodies including the National Care Forum, ADASS, Care England, and the Homecare Association have responded positively to the report’s findings on growth and vacancy reduction. However, they all continue to express concern over the fragile state of domestic recruitment. These organisations are calling for:

• Urgent investment in workforce pay and conditions

• A renewed focus on retention

• Full funding and implementation of any proposed Fair Pay Agreement

As the sector absorbs these findings, it’s clear that while progress is being made, sustained commitment is essential to secure a resilient and high-quality social care workforce for the future.

For a full look at the report, visit Skills for Care’s website.

As always, if you’re a member please do share your thoughts and perspectives on this or any other topic raised in my blogs.

Yours,

Nicola